Warner Brothers had come up with a slick promotion to get some much needed buzz around Blu-ray. My consensus: great idea but flawed execution. Here’s how it works (and why it won’t work):

You send in the cover art sleeve (keep the disc) and the UPC from your HD DVD movies. And for $4.95 per movie, plus $6.95 S&H per order, you’ll be sent back brand new Blu-ray copies of any movies you have in HD DVD. There are a few restrictions (only 1 copy per movie and only up to 25 movies per household) but nothing really that prohibitive.

At first glace, it seems like a decent offer, especially for someone like me who bought an HD DVD player with 10 movies included for under $200. But why is Warner Brothers trying to make anything off of this? At best, they should be giving away these movies under these circumstances (to owners of the HD DVD versions) and, at worst, they should sell them at cost (which is likely quite a bit less than $5 per disc). Here’s why:

I’ve been interested in Blu-ray for sometime now. And I have blogged about my HD DVD decision mistake quite a bit along with my interest in eventually switching to Blu-ray. That is, if the format wars of online movie distribution don’t get resolved first. So any incentive to do this (like this one from Warner Bros.) gets me interested.

But I would go out and buy (or order via Amazon) a Blu-ray player right now — on the spot — if this offer were closer to pocket change. As it is, it’s still a significant cost to switch to Blu-ray (albeit at a lower cost than yesterday) with this extra $60 needed.

And me, combined with the much larger volume of switchers if this were free, being a Blu-ray customer for the next who knows how many years, with a Blu-ray Netflix account, is worth more to Warner Bros. than the short term $60. Actually, they’d get much less than $60, since only some of my movies are Warner Bros. which ties into the other reason this won’t work well.

Part 2 of the failed execution is not making this a much bigger deal by joining forces with Paramount and Universal and having them offer the same thing. If these companies really want Blu-ray to take off, these are the kinds of promotions they’re gonna have to start doing together.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still thinking about making the switch. But it’s not the impulsive, easy decision it should be (for me, and anyone else who made the bad HD DVD discretionary purchase and is not thinking of discretionary spending in a bad economy) for this to really help Warner Bros. in the long run.

My barometer for Blu-ray player pricing (the Amazon Blu-ray store) tells me that most players can’t get under the $200 price mark with the cheapest at $159. All this despite Engadget predicting earlier this year that the market would be flooded with $150-or-less players.

And even if I pay less than $150, that doesn’t mean I’m willing to give up the two most important features which are absent in my current crappy HD DVD player (but were present in my older regular DVD player — hate it when moving forward in one way is moving backward in two other ways): it needs to boot up fast and remembers where I left off in a movie (if I turn it off and then turn it back on).

So, nice try, Warner Bros. You got me thinking. But you need me to be decisive.

Meet Lisa and her son Jackson, who’s looking for “speed, big hard drive, and a good gaming computer” for under $1,500. After a quick look at some PCs, Lisa says, “Let’s go see the Macs, they’re kind of popular at this age.” But then, Lisa points out that “…these are way more money, dude” quickly followed by Jackson saying (about a Mac), “It’s a little too small.”

So back to the PCs: We’re shown how you can use a PC with a remote and then we see both Lisa and Jackson get really excited about none other than “Bluuu-ray!” And, of course, Blu-ray is missing from Macs. For me personally, not a huge selling point of the PC. But for others like Lisa and Jackson, it seems pretty cool. And that’s the point being made here: there’s something for everyone.

This is the third ad in this series (embedded below), and just like I thought the second was better than the first, I think the third is better than the second. Having a mother/son shop together gives a little more credibility to the unscripted, regular people feel that wasn’t as apparent with the first two.

As always, though, it’s only a matter of time before the Apple community figures out which Sony Vaio was purchased in the ad and does a much deeper comparison. I always enjoy seeing the reaction as much as the ad, and this time is likely to be no different.

*Update* When it rains it pours. The Windows blog has a post up entitled “Avoid the Apple Tax – Cash in on the value of Windows” (which is quickly being questioned) while there are a number of other Microsoft ads out today featuring cute British kids.

First, I work for Microsoft. But I tend to purchase/use Microsoft products only when they are the best option for me personally (and they often are). In this case, I did actually look at Windows Mobile as my first choice. I’m on T-Mobile and not willing to switch carriers (most of my extended family is on T-Mobile, so I use hardly any minutes and like it that way, plus T-Mobile is the cheapest of all carriers and has been good to me the past few years).

Unfortunately, T-Mobile’s selection of Windows Mobile phones is pretty limited (and fairly outdated). I wasn’t impressed. There are some new Windows Mobile phones over at AT&T that got my attention, though the one I really wanted was the Sony Xperia X1. But I ran out of patience. It’s not subsidized by any carriers in the U.S. and has a price tag of $800 (not going to happen).

So I started looking at the G1 (the phone that a T-Mobile rep dubbed the “iPhone killer”) and was impressed by all the possibilities. Meaning, the marketplace of apps. Within an hour of using my phone, I had set it up as a GPS, a price scanner for shopping (scan any UPC and it shows me not only the pricing online but a map of stores around me and their pricing for the same products + it shows user reviews, etc.), a device to recognize any music playing around me, and most importantly a one touch resource for any information I need quickly.

I have an app that has a listing of support / customer service numbers for thousands of companies (huge time saver). A yellowbook app that allows me to look up a name (person or business) and then automatically gives me phone number, address, location on map, and directions (rather than doing many of those steps separately and tediously). I have a dead simple but powerful Facebook app along with an app that gives me movie showtimes/reviews/locations with one touch. One touch stock quotes on my portfolio. One touch access to my Netflix queue, Twitter, etc.

I’m just giving the highlights above. I have about 30 apps installed currently with many (like some listed above) providing features that simply don’t exist on any Windows Mobile phones that I’m aware of (or that I have access to, due to my carrier preference). And the phone is dead simple to use with each of these apps being easily placed on my phone’s desktop in whatever order I want. Being able to customize everything to my liking, I’m not sure I can go back to the days of the more locked down approach.

And now there’s even an app that enables me to get my work email (Exchange support). As a side note, not having Exchange support was one of the main reasons for weeks of me being reluctant to go with this phone. But once I heard about multiple G1 Exchange projects (within the G1 developer community), I made the jump with my fingers crossed.

It’s not perfect, of course. The phone’s shape, size, and look all could be a lot better. And the battery life is a huge disappointment. I often can’t make it through a day without having to charge. Also, it can’t do stuff like edit Office documents (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc.).

So what I’m saying is that my perfect phone would combine the look and feel of the Sony Experia (I like the full keyboard, sorry Apple), the doc editing features of Windows Mobile, the flexibility provided by a community app marketplace, a good battery life for at least a day’s use, and a decent price point (both hardware and carrier charges).

But since the perfect phone doesn’t exist, I went with what filled the most requirements on my list. What’s your perfect “smart” phone?

The first half of my title is taken straight from the title of an email I received from Netflix a couple days ago (see end of post for text of the email). In short, as of December 15, 2008, Netflix will no longer carry HD DVDs. Around the same time I got this email, coincidentally, a friend of mine sent me an email about an online sale offering $2 HD DVD movies.

You see, back before we knew the outcome of the HD wars (one year ago), I chose HD DVD over Blu-ray. I got a player and 10 HD DVDs for $174 (well, actually for $124 since Amazon gave me a “we feel sorry for you” $50 gift card once it was clear HD DVD lost). Interestingly enough, now Blu-ray prices are being slashed in the same way HD DVD prices were slashed a year ago.

The last time I checked out Blu-ray pricing on Amazon (my quick and dirty benchmark), the Playstation 3 was still the best deal (with any Blu-ray player cheaper still well into the $300′s but without the bonus of being a gaming system). But now, looking at Amazon’s list of Blu-ray players, the Samsung BD-P1500 player comes in lowest at $204.47.

It doesn’t stop there. Analysts are predicting more price cuts for this holiday season, and a leaked “Black Friday” ad for Wal-Mart shows a Magnavox Blu-ray player for $128. As I mentioned in a post nearly a year ago, the “format wars” matter more post HD DVD death than they did when the term referred to Blu-ray vs. HD DVD. It’s just that now “format wars” refers to Blu-ray vs. traditional DVD vs. streaming/downloadable content.

At under $200 I would consider a Blu-ray player, though my reasoning might seem unconventional. The HD DVD player I bought a year ago is my primary movie player for any disc (i.e., regular DVDs I own or get through Netflix, which is a lot of my media consumption). And its boot time / load time is excruciatingly slow, plus it doesn’t remember where I stopped a movie if I turn it off and back on again.

In other words, it’s a crappy DVD player even if it “upconverts” DVDs and plays HD DVDs. The question is, then, whether or not these under $200 Blu-ray players are dog slow with no memory feature. Hopefully Blu-ray isn’t making the same mistake as HD DVD on this front: releasing a player that feels crappy in every way other than picture quality. I could be wrong, but I think consumers still care about other conveniences too.

Unfortunately, the two conveniences/features I’m most interested in don’t seem to be easily comparable across products. This is where an Amazon deal or a Wal-Mart 4:00 a.m. deal lose out. I may only buy a Blu-ray player after I get to use it in a Best Buy (or wherever), which means I’ll likely be paying a premium.

Bottom line: In my opinion, Blu-ray is only a good buy if the premium over an upconvert DVD player isn’t much ($50ish more, meaning the Blu-ray player is well under $200) at the same time as the Blu-ray player having the same features we’ve come to expect from our movie players (in my case, boots up fast and remembers where I left off).

Does anyone know of a Blu-ray player that fits these criteria? I’ll update this post if I find anything.

*Update* Lots of below $200 deals coming out today, including one player that boasts a quick load time!

See below for the Netflix email:

HD DVDs are going away

Dear Bob,

Effective December 15, 2008, we will no longer carry HD DVDs. At that time, we will automatically replace any HD DVD titles in your Queue with standard DVDs when available. You don’t have to do anything.

Last February, we announced that since most of the major movie studios had decided to release their high-def movies exclusively in Blu-ray, we were going exclusively Blu-ray as well and would be phasing out our HD DVDs.

We’re sorry for any inconvenience. If you have any questions or need further assistance, please call us at 1-888-638-3549.

- The Netflix Team

Sony has spent the last three years restructuring the company and today releases its big plans for growth. Apparently, the next big thing is electronics products that connect to each other and the Internet and stuff. You know, downloading movies onto a game console or syncing your music with a music player. Wow, I can’t wait for all that kind of technology to come out.

We here at TechConsumer have been pretty harsh on Sony, but it feels like the company has been playing catch up for a long time. And even in areas where it was once the innovator, it now sucks. (Here’s a site that rates the best “CD Players / Recorders,” and Sony is at the bottom of the list.)

Now seems like as good a time as any to recap some of Sony’s blunders for just the past year (we wouldn’t want this post to get too long):

Sony Charges $50 Extra to Sell You Laptop with No Crapware

“But apparently Sony figured out that if 70% of its customers aren’t interested in two dozen icons of offers (really Sony, 3 to 4 is one thing, but over 20?), the company should offer a crapware-free version of its laptops. Sony, in all its branding glory, has decided to trademark the term “Fresh Start” but has made the huge mistake of charging $50 for it.”

Sony DVD Player + Sony Movies = Won’t Play

“Does Sony really think that it is acceptable to produce DVDs that don’t even play in your own company’s players, nevermind players by top manufacturers such as JVC, Mitsubishi, Pioneer, RCA, Samsung, or Toshiba?”

Sony Thinks Blu-ray Will Sell Like DVD by End of 2008

“While the vast majority of Blu-ray players out there are the ones built-in to the Playstation 3, Sony has plans for cheaper Blu-ray players including a new focus on “IT devices.” (Because we all would adopt Blu-ray if only our computers had it, apparently). Last but not least on the list of reasons, more Blu-ray movies will be offered by Hollywood studios to entice you into switching to the new format.”

The $100 PS3 Game: Gran Turismo 5

“When Sony announced that Gran Turismo 5 Prologue would be available for $40 in April, I couldn’t help but have a knee-jerk reaction. How could Sony get away with charging $40 for GT5 Reduced Lite Junior Prologue when the full version would sell for only $20 more? Here’s how, the word is out today that the full blown version of Gran Turismo won’t be out for another year! Is this a new business model for delayed games or just Sony trying to satiate the rabid Gran Turismo fans?”

Blu-ray in the News: High Prices & No Microsoft Love

“Since Blu-ray became the next generation movie disc format of choice, the consumer supposedly has been better off. But Tom’s Hardware claims that prices of Blu-ray players are higher than ever and that now, in fact, is the worst time to buy.”

Paul’s Soapbox: DRM, 3G, Playstation Home

“For those not familiar with Playstation Home (also referred to as just Home), it is Sony’s total copy interpretation of Second Life The Sims Online a virtual world. It was originally announced in March 2007 and scheduled to come out in open beta in August 2007 and public release in October 2007. Later they promised a ‘Spring 2008′ delivery, only to announce in Spring 2008 that it would be coming out in Fall 2008.”

Feel free to add to this list by leaving a comment below.

Sony CEO Ryoji Chubachi knows something we don’t. At a press conference a few days ago, he pointed out Sony’s plan to increase Blu-ray market share to 50% by the end of the year. How is this possible you might ask? Well, apparently new Blu-ray devices to be offered by Sony will include a model integrated into an HD LCD TV with Blu-ray recording functionality.

But that’s not all. While the vast majority of Blu-ray players out there are the ones built-in to the Playstation 3, Sony has plans for cheaper Blu-ray players including a new focus on “IT devices.” (Because we all would adopt Blu-ray if only our computers had it, apparently). Last but not least on the list of reasons, more Blu-ray movies will be offered by Hollywood studios to entice you into switching to the new format.

All of this may very will be true, but none of it has happened yet. The Playstation 3 is still the best deal for anyone interested in Blu-ray. And that’s because you get a gaming system along with your Blu-ray player for the $400 you’ll be spending. Otherwise, your Blu-ray player options still seem to be well into the $400 price range.

And let’s not forget the cost of the movies themselves. HD DVD movies now are finally reasonably priced only after the format is pretty much dead. But Blu-ray? Does Sony really think that $27.95 is the new price for movies?

Plus, we’re seeing some serious momentum behind the move toward downloadable/streaming content. All things considered, though, I think the biggest challenge for Sony is that people seem just fine with good ol’ DVD. Sure, I could see this changing but only if the premium for Blu-ray (over regular DVD) was, say, 20-50%. I personally think 400%+ is a bit much.

*Update* Gizmodo has the news of a new Sony Blu-ray recorder release. I think the first comment is very telling:

“So now that Blu Ray won, we’re supposed to all run out and stock up on Sony products we never wanted in the first place? No thanks.”

Sony and crapware have a special relationship, so much so that it takes over two minutes for its laptops to boot into Windows (compare that with 30 seconds for a MacBook). The company has even issued press statements explaining its reasoning: “The programs are carefully selected and provide benefits to many consumers, up to 30% of whom act on the offers.”

But apparently Sony figured out that if 70% of its customers aren’t interested in two dozen icons of offers (really Sony, 3 to 4 is one thing, but over 20?), the company should offer a crapware-free version of its laptops. Sony, in all its branding glory, has decided to trademark the term “Fresh Start” but has made the huge mistake of charging $50 for it. Here’s the description:

“Opt for a Fresh Start^TM and your VAIO PC will undergo a system optimization service where specific VAIO applications, trial software and games are removed from your unit prior to shipment. Fresh Start^TM safely scrubs your PC to free up valuable hard drive space and conserve memory and processing power while maximizing overall system performance right from the start. “

I love the terminology. “System optimization service” is what we’re calling a computer that comes without crapware. And by characterizing hard drive space as “valuable” and memory in need of conservation, Sony is effectively digging its own grave. I mean, do they not see that consumers notice this? If this new $50 feature “maximizes system performance,” then what does that imply of all the Sony laptops sold before it?

Also, it should be noted that no “Fresh Start” is available unless you pay the extra $100 for Microsoft Windows Vista Business. Here’s a list of all the crapware Sony installs:

• Two desktop icons for America Online services
• At least two dozen icons for random offers
• Two desktop icons for Microsoft services
• Napster window in the lower right part of the screen
• “Watch Hit Movies Now!” icon which requires you to pay to play the movies already taking up space on your computer
• Internet Explorer preloaded with AOL toolbar
• AOL set as default search engine with Google not even listed as an option
• Symantec Internet Security 60-day trial (requires multiple rounds of warnings / scans / updates before use)

*Update* Wired is running a piece claiming that Sony “won’t charge $50 to remove bloatware.” They even have quotes from Sony spokespeople: “There will be no charge for Fresh Start.” Well, I just went to Sony’s website to verify this news and… surprise, surprise, the charge of $50 is still there. Maybe it’ll change soon, but Sony PR and Sony Online apparently need to talk first.

*Update 2* Gizmodo has a brief post that pulls a Sony quote of nowhere: “Starting March 22, Sony will offer Fresh Start free of charge. We want VAIO users to have the best experience possible with our PCs, and we believe Fresh Start will help ensure that happens right out-of-the-box.”

It looks like the consumer uprising today may have had an effect. Here’s another quote, this one from Sony’s Mike Abary, Senior Vice President of the VAIO division:

“We didn’t intend that to happen. We’re removing the $49 charge. VAIO is the poster child for negative experiences people had [with trialware]. We recognize that, and we acknowledge it. We’ve been really beat up by this issue. We’re listening and we’re taking action.”

Since Blu-ray became the next generation movie disc format of choice, the consumer supposedly has been better off. But Tom’s Hardware claims that prices of Blu-ray players are higher than ever and that now, in fact, is the worst time to buy.

Interesting. I’ve been tracking Blu-ray vs. HD DVD player pricing for the past year via Amazon and hadn’t noticed any recent increases. As of today, the Blu-ray players on Amazon are priced in the same range they’ve always been: the mid to high $300′s. Right now the cheapest Blu-ray player on Amazon is this Samsung for $357. I’ve seen it $20 cheaper, but I’ve also seen it more expensive.

The truth is, of course, that until Blu-ray players fall well below $300 (which I haven’t seen on Amazon), there’s no point in buying anything but the Sony Playstation 3. It’s $400 and has Blu-ray included. And HD DVD players are now the same price as upconvert DVD players. Amazon has this HD DVD player for $79 (via the TigerDirect link on the right).

Meanwhile, Aaron Greenberg, group product manager for Xbox 360, today seemed to squash any rumors of Microsoft working on a Blu-ray add-on for the Xbox 360:

“Xbox is not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience… We’re the only console offering digital distribution of entertainment content.”

So there you have it. Since Blu-ray won the next gen movie disc war: Blu-ray prices aren’t coming down, HD DVD players are the new upconvert DVD, and digital distribution seems to be where Microsoft is headed. More coverage and opinions via Techmeme.

For anyone keeping score since Blu-ray won the next generation movie battle, HD DVD players are now $99. And that’s with 7 movies included. Considering these players also work well as upconvert DVD players (DVD players that convert and play regular DVDs at a slightly higher picture quality), in some ways, it’s actually the best deal on the market if you’re looking for a good DVD player.

If you value the 7 movies included (incidentally, most regular DVD players don’t come with free movies like this) at the discounted price of $10 per movie, then you’re effectively getting a nice DVD player for about $30. Retailer Play.com is using similar logic, as it relabeled all its HD DVD players for sale as upconvert DVD players (but Play’s deal isn’t nearly as good as Amazon’s).

And remember that Blu-ray players are well into the $300 price range. The best deal available is really the Playstation 3 for around $400; you may as well get a gaming console if you’re already willing to spend over $300 for the next generation of movies. I agree with Saul Hansell who writes for the NYTimes blog BITS:

“I suspect Sony’s Blu-ray will have a hard time for a few years, but not because of downloading… The competition for Blu-ray players is the latest generation of DVD players that can generate a high-definition picture from a standard-definition disc.”

*Update* There’s a rumor floating around that the Xbox 360 HD DVD player will be dropping to $49. It currently includes 6 movies with purchase (until the end of February 2008).

Toshiba today announced that, “it will no longer develop, manufacture and market HD DVD players and recorders.” March 2008 will be the month when the plug is pulled. Just in the last month, we’ve seen Warner Brothers become the latest Hollywood studio to go for Blu-ray while both Blockbuster and Netflix announced plans to phase out HD DVD.

And let’s not forget Wal-Mart’s announcment of “Blu-ray only” plus Best Buy saying Blu-ray is the “preferred” format. Despite some analysts thinking this war could have gone on for another year, Toshiba was quick to cut its losses and move on. It’s just as well; the format war wasn’t doing consumers any favors. But who do we talk to in order to get Sony to move Blu-ray down to a reasonable price?

Last I checked, Amazon is selling an HD DVD player with 7 movies for a record low of $109 (that’s close to the same price as many “upconvert” regular DVD players but with free movies). Although, that kind of pricing isn’t likely to matter much anymore; prepare to spend big on the next generation of movies. Blu-ray players are still 3x the price of HD DVD. All of them listed on Amazon are well into the $300′s or higher.

See below for Toshiba’s press release:

Toshiba Announces Discontinuation of HD DVD Businesses

19 February, 2008

Company Remains Focused on Championing Consumer Access to High Definition Content

TOKYO–Toshiba Corporation today announced that it has undertaken a thorough review of its overall strategy for HD DVD and has decided it will no longer develop, manufacture and market HD DVD players and recorders. This decision has been made following recent major changes in the market. Toshiba will continue, however, to provide full product support and after-sales service for all owners of Toshiba HD DVD products.

HD DVD was developed to offer consumers access at an affordable price to high-quality, high definition content and prepare them for the digital convergence of tomorrow where the fusion of consumer electronics and IT will continue to progress.

“We carefully assessed the long-term impact of continuing the so-called ‘next-generation format war’ and concluded that a swift decision will best help the market develop,” said Atsutoshi Nishida, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation. “While we are disappointed for the company and more importantly, for the consumer, the real mass market opportunity for high definition content remains untapped and Toshiba is both able and determined to use our talent, technology and intellectual property to make digital convergence a reality.”

Toshiba will continue to lead innovation, in a wide range of technologies that will drive mass market access to high definition content. These include high capacity NAND flash memory, small form factor hard disk drives, next generation CPUs, visual processing, and wireless and encryption technologies. The company expects to make forthcoming announcements around strategic progress in these convergence technologies.

Toshiba will begin to reduce shipments of HD DVD players and recorders to retail channels, aiming for cessation of these businesses by the end of March 2008. Toshiba also plans to end volume production of HD DVD disk drives for such applications as PCs and games in the same timeframe, yet will continue to make efforts to meet customer requirements. The company will continue to assess the position of notebook PCs with integrated HD DVD drives within the overall PC business relative to future market demand.

This decision will not impact on Toshiba’s commitment to standard DVD, and the company will continue to market conventional DVD players and recorders. Toshiba intends to continue to contribute to the development of the DVD industry, as a member of the DVD Forum, an international organization with some 200 member companies, committed to the discussion and defining of optimum optical disc formats for the consumer and the related industries.

Toshiba also intends to maintain collaborative relations with the companies who joined with Toshiba in working to build up the HD DVD market, including Universal Studios, Paramount Pictures, and DreamWorks Animation and major Japanese and European content providers on the entertainment side, as well as leaders in the IT industry, including Microsoft, Intel, and HP. Toshiba will study possible collaboration with these companies for future business opportunities, utilizing the many assets generated through the development of HD DVD.